Understanding Odds

Implied Probability

In a parimutuel system, the implied probability of an outcome is determined by the share of the pool on that side. If the YES pool holds 70% of the total, the implied probability of YES is 70%.

Dynamic Odds

Odds change as new predictions come in. If many users predict YES, the YES pool grows and the implied probability increases, but the potential payout per YES predictor decreases. Conversely, predicting against the crowd offers higher potential returns.

Estimated Payout

When you enter a stake amount, the prediction form shows an estimated payout based on current pool balances. This estimate assumes no further predictions are placed. The actual payout may differ because other users can change the pool composition before resolution.

No Fixed Odds

Unlike a traditional bookmaker, there are no fixed odds at the time of your bet. Your final payout depends on the total pool composition at resolution time. This is a fundamental property of parimutuel markets.